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THREE PICKS FOR THIS WEEK’S EVENT FROM COLONIAL

Last week’s major champ takes a well deserved break but the world number one, who’s perhaps in more need of a little time off, intends to tee it up on Thursday. Scheffler’s a very short +260 to beat a decent field in his resident state.

The risk to go against Scottie for victory is far too great. Baby Scheffler or overhanging criminal charges may affect his mental state but as we’ve seen previously, he doesn’t need to be 100% at it to dispatch of elite level golfers. Morikawa is comfortably next best on form but there’s a fragility in winning there that +1200 doesn’t lend itself to.

We’ve got three alternative bets to the outright winner of this week’s event in Forth Worth…

TOP 10 FINISH: AARON RAI (+450, DraftKings)

Aaron Rai arrives here looking to emulate his compatriot, Justin Rose, who won this in 2018. They have similar profiles and Rai can utilise that skillset to go close again here.

The Englishman has two top 10s this season, both occurring in his last five events, and the signs were there of a top level professional at last week’s PGA Championship.

He arrives this week at a course that plays right to his game. There is little requirement for distance off the tee but the accuracy he possesses will more than come in handy.

After feeling this unique venue out in 2022, Rai managed a T12 in 2023 and he began that event off the back of three missed cuts! He’s bang in form this time around, and is clearly a better player both visually and statistically.

TOP 20 FINISH: JUSTIN LOWER (+600, DraftKings)

Lower looked excellent when finishing T3 in Mexico back in February and a lot was spoken of the 35-year-old taking his game to another level. Whilst it may feel like we’ve not seen a lot of Lower since, he’s recorded four finishes inside the top 28 in his last five, including a T4 in Puntacana. An honourable mention to his T36 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational as well.

As one of the worst drivers on tour, Lower will be delighted to be on a course that doesn’t require taking the big stick out of the bag much. In spite of his poor driving stats, he’s nailing greens in regulation this season and showcasing exquisite approach play in the process, which will be called upon a lot here this week.

Like Rai, Lower had a poor first spin around the venue (T57) but he was two under heading into the weekend and he can draw on that experience to improve this time around.

TOP CONTINENTAL EUROPEAN: JORGE CAMPILLO (+900, DraftKings)

There is an unusually weak feeling about this market and we’re looking to take advantage.

Campillo is a steady player, arrives after finishing T4 in his last event and his game suits this test perfectly. This is more like the challenges he faced, and conquered well, in some of his DP World Tour appearances than the PGA TOUR events he’s recently transitioned to. The Spaniard might not be a better golfer than the four above him in this betting, but he looks a better bet for this event.

There are huge flaws to expose in those above and around him in this betting… Straka (+260) and Perez (+850) arrive off a missed cut, Matti Schmid (+1000) has two on the bounce. The big hitting Hojgaard (+650) isn’t made for the track and only managed T68 in Kentucky last week. Detry (+330) is no doubt a danger if playing like he did at Valhalla, but you have to assume a lot was taken out of the Belgian to stay in contention and, given he’s quite all-or-nothing, this week looks more likely to be a blowout.

If there’s no effects from the missed cut, Straka is the one-to-watch here and he’s probably a justified favorite, but Campillo shouldn’t be as far from him and the others as he is. +900 is a very good value bet on an accurate and excellent approach player around Colonial.

All odds listed from DraftKings, as of Tuesday May 21.

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