TOP FINISHING POSITION & OUTRIGHT WINNER PICKS
Brooks Koepka put the Masters demons behind him to claim victory in the PGA Championship at the weekend. After a poor opening round +2, his Friday to Sunday performance was well deserving of success, holding off PGA TOUR heavyweights Hovland and Scheffler by a couple of shots.
All three are in action again this week. Koepka (+750, BetMGM) is favorite for LIV Golf DC but the victory hangover might dent his chances. Read on below for our outright winner tip at Trump National Golf Club Washington DC.
Meanwhile Scheffler (+400, Caesars) is a short favorite for the Charles Schwab Challenge and he’s difficult to oppose after a playoff loss in this last year, two high profile wins this year and two top five finishes in his last two starts. Only poor putting on the third round cost Scottie in Rochester, therefore similar form with a more effective flat stick should be enough in Texas. Scheffler’s price is far too short and the top 10 market has been our friend this season, including at the PGA Championship with a +750 on a DeChambeau top 10, so we’re sticking by it for our selections in Texas first up…
TOP 10 FINISH: SEPP STRAKA (+700, Caesars)
If Straka can repeat what he did at Oak Hill then +700 is going to look very big come Sunday. There was no luck about that T7 result. On a course that penalised those out of position, the Austrian ranked 4th in driving accuracy. Keeping it straight and on the fairways will offer low scoring around Colonial.
Straka’s results are streaky but when hot he’s excellent value for a top 10 finish, notching three so far this season already.
In two attempts around Colonial (2020 & 2021), he’s opened with good under par rounds, and followed up with poor second rounds. Better for the experience, now a PGA TOUR winner and buoyed by a cracking major spin, Straka is far more likely to put together a complete showing of his skills.
TOP 10 FINISH: BYEONG HUN AN (+800, Caesars)
Byeong-Hun was last seen two weeks ago finishing T14 in the Byron Nelson, held just up the road at TPC Craig Ranch, and his most recent top 10 finish was a couple months back just south of here at TPC San Antonio in the Valero Texas Open. Conditions in the lone star state suit the South Korean and they look to be favorable for the field this week.
With noticeable improvements in performance recently, Byeong-Hun is competing with the tournament favorites in important stat categories, including SG: Tee-to-Green, integral on a course demanding accuracy.
TOP 10 FINISH: MATTHEW NESMITH (+1000, Caesars)
NeSmith is coming off the back of a good T23 finish in the PGA Championship, his fifth made cut in a row, a series of starts that includes a T4 finish in the Zurich Classic pairs event.
NeSmith was perhaps at his career best when going T9-T2-T9 in October and he looks to be back playing similar golf now. A fantastic iron player that will enjoy the accuracy test of Colonial.
LIV GOLF DC WINNER: BRYSON DECHAMBEAU (+1600, BetMGM)
For many of the same reasons as last week, when Bryson secured a winning top 10 finish tip, we’re betting him again, but this time for victory. He’s back out on a long course, slightly longer than Oak Hill, however conditions are far more favorable and he’ll be able to attack the long par fours and par fives.
The PGA Championship proved his return to full fitness and, perhaps just as importantly, that his mentality in title chasing is fairly robust. We came to expect all or nothing with Bryson at times but this calmer, rejuvenated Bryson is exactly the type to win another tournament before too long and that could easily be in DC this weekend.
Odds listed as of Wednesday May 24.
