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TWO PICKS FOR TEXAS & ONE AT LIV GOLF IN MIAMI

It’s the last competitive action for players across both PGA and LIV before they come together next week at Augusta for the Masters.

Masters second-favorite McIlroy lines up in Texas, presumably hoping to get hot before his pursuit of the Grand Slam. +900 is a bit short on a player that might be tweaking and testing a little and our first pick is on a value outright winner at TPC San Antonio. Our second pick is back in the safer top position markets.

Meanwhile our final pick of the week is on a winner at Trump National Doral where the LIV guys with a Masters invite will certainly be looking to show their worth ahead of their shorter journey to Georgia.

TEXAS OPEN WINNER: COLLIN MORIKAWA (+2500, DraftKings)

This is a higher class field than usual, hence why two-time major winner Collin Morikawa is all the way out at +2500. It’s difficult to ignore those odds on one of the most consistent golfers in the elite set lining up at Texas.

TPC San Antonio demands good approach play, so why not one of the best in the world in such a department? But it’s more than that. A good all-round game is required to get into double figure digits under par, particularly in what could be tricky conditions this week. The American is showing top form in irons and wedges, whilst his accuracy off-the-tee will prove vital this week and his putting is showing signs of improvement to put him above average after a long time struggling.

This season’s results haven’t been spectacular, but in only six starts he’s logged a T5 at the Sentry and top-20s at Pebble Beach and Riviera. A reasonable showing at the PLAYERS last time out and this is a perfect chance to really hone his play before Augusta, where he could easily be in contention again after T10-T5 last two.

TEXAS OPEN TOP 5: TOMMY FLEETWOOD (+700, DraftKings)

With a not too dissimilar profile to Morikawa, our next bet is on Fleetwood. Not quite with the same winner’s mentality, Fleetwood offers value here at +700 to go close. We were stung earlier in the season when the Englishman finished a few places back on the same bet at the Genesis, however it’s that form which will put him there again.

His careful but effective driving will put him in the positions to make shots on approach. Expect a measured round with nothing spectacular and equally nothing too troublesome. Four good rounds to ooze confidence ahead of Augusta in this change to his regular majors preparation schedule.

Fleetwood has been handed an ideal grouping and tee-time. McIlroy, Fowler and Fleetwood will go out late Thursday and early Friday, getting the best of the weather. The McIlroy tee bombings should give Fleetwood a good perspective of the course, plus the enjoyment and familiarity he’ll get out of playing with a good friend.

LIV GOLF MIAMI WINNER: ABRAHAM ANCER (+2800, BetMGM)

Ancer did his best to throw away a huge lead at the last LIV event but still clung on, via a play-off, to win his first tournament on the tour. Whilst it might feel strange therefore to bet him going back-to-back, the way he’s trending suggests his final round in Hong Kong was merely a blip.

This season the Mexican has gone: T28-T21-T12-1. In his last nine rounds he’s shot nothing bigger than 72, six of which in the 60s, including a pair of 63s and a 62. Last time out in Hong Kong was home to one of those 63s and the 62. Whilst the low LIV scoring doesn’t quite compare to the PGA TOUR numbers, it still highlights how consistently Ancer is posting very well put together rounds.

It’s a long course and the big hitters are favored by most, pushing Ancer down the betting, but there are a lot of hazards to avoid and finding fairways is very important on this track that doesn’t yield super low scoring. Ancer is T1 in fairway percentage and holds a similar profile to the last two winners of PGA TOUR events on this course – Patrick Reed and Adam Scott.

Ancer will not be at Augusta. One of the most in-form players on LIV has a point to prove by going back-to-back and with no attentions elsewhere other than in Miami.

All odds listed from DraftKings and BetMGM, as of Tuesday April 3.

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