Our football experts has two top tips for this weekend’s NCAAF schedule
This year’s NCAAF regular season is drawing to a close – with only two gameweeks remaining until the Championship games begin.
Our man picked out Michigan to get the job done on the spread last week, and he is hoping to follow that up with two winners this week.
Week 12’s picks focuses on the Illinois/Iowa matchup, as well as the Navy Midshipmen.
Here are this week’s best bets for the NCAAF Week 12 schedule.
FIGHTING THE UNDER LINE
Iowa have earned fans in a new camp this season – the under line backers.
The Hawkeyes have covered the under line in eight of their 10 games this season – mostly thanks to their strong defense and their poor scoring offense.
Iowa is only averaging 18.8 points per game on offense, while allowing only 11 touchdowns all season – which is clearly an under bettor’s dream.
However, their over/under line of 30.5 points against Illinois this week looks a tad low – especially when looking at John Paddock’s performance last week.
The backup senior QB completed 24 of 36 passes for 505 yards, four touchdowns and an interception in his school’s 48-45 overtime win over Indiana – which is the second highest passing yardage accumulation nationwide this season.
While Paddock has only featured in four games for the Fighting Illini this season, he does hold an incredible stat – Illinois have scored in 66% of their drives when the Senior is on the field.
Despite the strength of the Iowa defense, this game could see some points scored here – and potentially hit the over line in this matchup.
TIP: Iowa/Illinois Over 30.5 Points (-115, FanDuel)
NOT A PIRATE’S LIFE FOR ME
It’s been a bit of a hit-and-miss campaign for the Navy Midshipmen this season, but they could register back-to-back wins for the first time this year against East Carolina.
While the Pirates will have the rush defense that can deal with Navy’s backfield here, their offense could let them down once again.
East Carolina’s offense has only managed 277.9 yards per game in 2023, and have scored an averaged of 1.6 touchdowns per game – making them one of the worst performing offenses in the country.
That should give Navy more time on the field, and they could well wear down the Pirates defense – covering the spread in the process.